The World Cup group stages are over, and half the 32 teams are packing their bags and heading home. But who deserved to go, and who has a wistful tear in their eye for what might have been? Continue reading
In a previous article I looked at the number of goals and expected goals Spurs players accrued last season. As you would expect, Harry Kane is easily the main goal threat. But which players create these chances? Continue reading
As we all know, Harry Kane doesn’t score in August. This year he kept his poor run going and, as if to emphasise the point, come the first day of September the goals arrived.
But leaving media narratives aside, has he really played badly in his three Premier League starts so far? Or has he just been a bit unlucky? Continue reading
We’re three games into the Premier League campaign and it’s still far too early to make any confident predictions but what interesting statistics have emerged so far?
New boys, Huddersfield lead the tackle count with 69. It looks like David Wagner has continued with the aggressive pressing style that served him so well in the Championship. In second place is another fan of the Gegenpress, Jurgen Klopp, whose Liverpool side sit on 63. Continue reading
Another interesting week in the Premier League saw a rather strange performance from Burnley at West Brom. Sean Dyche’s side managed a very impressive total of 20 shots, but what was more impressive was that not one of those 20 were on target.
Opposition manager Tony Pulis, whose players recorded a measly 32% possession, continues his habit of pulling off statistically unlikely victories. Continue reading
Expected Goals is a derived statistic that estimates the number of goals a team would score on average from its opportunities. It has become so widespread it now features on Match of the Day.
To help in my analysis of games I have created a very simple Expected Goals model – see here if you want to know more details. Many people have built more sophisticated models but this should still be good enough to give us a useful analysis tool.
So what can Expected Goals tell us about last week’s Premier League matches? Continue reading
With just four games remaining, it looks like this year’s Premier League is a two horse race. Tottenham and Leicester have surprised everyone this year but who will take the final prize? Continue reading