Premier League performance – Expected Goals versus Points

The Premier League is seven games old, just enough to start looking at how teams are performing statistically.

Expected Points vs Actual Points

I have created an Expected Goals measure to analyse games (see here for an explanation). This can be used to make an estimate of how many points you would expect a team to have earned based on the shots they have taken. Continue reading

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Spurs draw a blank against a resolute Swansea

It was a familiar story on Saturday evening, as Spurs failed to break down a packed defence.

spurs_swansea

How the match unfolded by Expected Goals, i.e. quality of chances

Swansea have conceded the second most shots in the division so far this season, and have recorded the lowest shot count themselves, so here was a real opportunity for Tottenham. Continue reading

Was Harry Kane’s August that bad (through numbers)?

As we all know, Harry Kane doesn’t score in August. This year he kept his poor run going and, as if to emphasise the point, come the first day of September the goals arrived.

But leaving media narratives aside, has he really played badly in his three Premier League starts so far? Or has he just been a bit unlucky? Continue reading

Premier League review by the numbers

We’re three games into the Premier League campaign and it’s still far too early to make any confident predictions but what interesting statistics have emerged so far?

Teams

New boys, Huddersfield lead the tackle count with 69. It looks like David Wagner has continued with the aggressive pressing style that served him so well in the Championship. In second place is another fan of the Gegenpress, Jurgen Klopp, whose Liverpool side sit on 63. Continue reading

Spurs 1 Burnley 1 – the sucker punch

Another disappointing result in August, it just never seems to come together for Pochettino at this time of the year. Another last minute goal conceded, it wasn’t that long ago that Spurs were the team of 90th minute winners, supposedly a testament to our manager’s penchant for extra training sessions. This felt like a real sucker punch. Continue reading