What is wrong with Tottenham?

Life seemed good back in early November. Spurs had just beaten Real Madrid 3-1 in a pulsating Champions League clash and sat a healthy third in the Premier League table.

A scrappy 1-0 win over Crystal Palace followed. Mauricio Pochettino’s side didn’t play well in that encounter but they found a way to get the three points. A hangover from such an emotional Champions League victory was only to be expected. Continue reading

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Premier League performance – Expected Goals versus Points

The Premier League is seven games old, just enough to start looking at how teams are performing statistically.

Expected Points vs Actual Points

I have created an Expected Goals measure to analyse games (see here for an explanation). This can be used to make an estimate of how many points you would expect a team to have earned based on the shots they have taken. Continue reading

Spurs draw a blank against a resolute Swansea

It was a familiar story on Saturday evening, as Spurs failed to break down a packed defence.

spurs_swansea

How the match unfolded by Expected Goals, i.e. quality of chances

Swansea have conceded the second most shots in the division so far this season, and have recorded the lowest shot count themselves, so here was a real opportunity for Tottenham. Continue reading

Was Harry Kane’s August that bad (through numbers)?

As we all know, Harry Kane doesn’t score in August. This year he kept his poor run going and, as if to emphasise the point, come the first day of September the goals arrived.

But leaving media narratives aside, has he really played badly in his three Premier League starts so far? Or has he just been a bit unlucky? Continue reading