Looking at statistics from the first four rounds of Premier League action I came across this rather interesting table of the five players with the most “key passes” this season. A “key pass” is one that leads to a shot, so it gives an idea of how many chances a player has created. Continue reading
As we all know, Harry Kane doesn’t score in August. This year he kept his poor run going and, as if to emphasise the point, come the first day of September the goals arrived.
But leaving media narratives aside, has he really played badly in his three Premier League starts so far? Or has he just been a bit unlucky? Continue reading
We’re three games into the Premier League campaign and it’s still far too early to make any confident predictions but what interesting statistics have emerged so far?
New boys, Huddersfield lead the tackle count with 69. It looks like David Wagner has continued with the aggressive pressing style that served him so well in the Championship. In second place is another fan of the Gegenpress, Jurgen Klopp, whose Liverpool side sit on 63. Continue reading
Another disappointing result in August, it just never seems to come together for Pochettino at this time of the year. Another last minute goal conceded, it wasn’t that long ago that Spurs were the team of 90th minute winners, supposedly a testament to our manager’s penchant for extra training sessions. This felt like a real sucker punch. Continue reading
Another interesting week in the Premier League saw a rather strange performance from Burnley at West Brom. Sean Dyche’s side managed a very impressive total of 20 shots, but what was more impressive was that not one of those 20 were on target.
Opposition manager Tony Pulis, whose players recorded a measly 32% possession, continues his habit of pulling off statistically unlikely victories. Continue reading
Spurs lost a tight game to continue their poor recent record at Wembley.
It wasn’t a very positive result but Pochettino’s team played reasonably well. With 68% possession and 18 shots to 9, they were certainly not outplayed and it was a game that could have gone either way.
It was interesting that both manager’s went with cautious starting lineups; both shielded the defence with three holding midfield players. This was maybe more understandable from Conte’s point of view. He was after all the away team coach and had to deal with several injuries and suspensions.
For Spurs, I would have liked to have seen Son’s pace from the start, and the inclusion of Winks to give us more passing options from deep.
Spurs certainly missed the width and pace offered by Rose and Walker, often the answer to unlocking stubborn defences last season. Wingbacks should be a priority in the short time left of the transfer window.
Kane still hasn’t scored an August Premier League goal. Here he was unlucky taking 8 shots, twice that of the next most prolific player (Morata) and going extremely close as he saw one effort come back off the post.
I’m not too worried about our form at Wembley. Losses against teams of the stature of Monaco and Chelsea are not proof of a problem. If we fail to win against Burnley on Sunday, well that would be a different story entirely.
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Expected Goals is a derived statistic that estimates the number of goals a team would score on average from its opportunities. It has become so widespread it now features on Match of the Day.
To help in my analysis of games I have created a very simple Expected Goals model – see here if you want to know more details. Many people have built more sophisticated models but this should still be good enough to give us a useful analysis tool.
So what can Expected Goals tell us about last week’s Premier League matches? Continue reading