The Premier League is seven games old, just enough to start looking at how teams are performing statistically.
Expected Points vs Actual Points
I have created an Expected Goals measure to analyse games (see here for an explanation). This can be used to make an estimate of how many points you would expect a team to have earned based on the shots they have taken. Continue reading
Looking at statistics from the first four rounds of Premier League action I came across this rather interesting table of the five players with the most “key passes” this season. A “key pass” is one that leads to a shot, so it gives an idea of how many chances a player has created. Continue reading
As we all know, Harry Kane doesn’t score in August. This year he kept his poor run going and, as if to emphasise the point, come the first day of September the goals arrived.
But leaving media narratives aside, has he really played badly in his three Premier League starts so far? Or has he just been a bit unlucky? Continue reading
Spurs put a tough summer break – with no signings and Danny Rose’s dalliance with the media – behind them as they cruised to victory against 10 man Newcastle.
Slow Starters
Under Mauricio Pochettino, fans have got used to slow starts to the season full of draws. His teams have tended to look lethargic and lacking in ideas in August, which has cost them dear. Not so here, although the sending off definitely made life easier.
Spurs created plenty of chances – 18 shots, 6 of which were on target.
Full Backs
With Walker gone, and Rose and Trippier injured, fullback looks like the squad’s weakness. The biggest surprise of the transfer window has been the failure to bring in a right back.
Step forward Kyle Walker-Peters – whose similarity in name to his predecessor created only slightly fewer derivative twitter jokes than Danny Rose’s google comments. The young right back had a very accomplished debut and was named Sky’s man of the match. Davies also played well, with a nice finish to seal the three points.
Newcastle clearly targeted Walker-Peters, attacking down Spurs’ right 49% of the time versus 15% down the centre and 36% down Spurs’ left. He coped admirably.
Spurs’ defence allowed only 6 shots, equal second best for the opening weekend.
Eriksen
Last season Eriksen’s form in the early part of the campaign was a real worry. He came good around Christmas to finish as one of our best performers. It was great to see him continuing his good form here. Along with Kane, he is probably the player we have the least cover for in our squad.
With the most shots (6, level with Kane), shots on target (3) and key passes (3), along with assists for both goals, Eriksen should probably have been named man of the match.
Other games
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Pochettino’s defence has been solid all season. Spurs have conceded a league low 14 goals; of the rest only Chelsea are below 20.
Going forward it’s not been as simple. Much like last season Spurs have struggled to break teams down in the early part of the campaign. And just like last time around, they’ve started to hit their stride mid-season. Spurs only scored 15 in their first 11 Premier League games, then 28 in the next 10.
So why is that?
The most obvious answer is the effect injuries have had on the squad. Last campaign Pochettino was very lucky, with the spine of the team available most weeks. That luck couldn’t hold forever and this season has seen long layoffs to several first team regulars – most notably Kane and Alderweireld.
The defence is more about a system, so it is easier to plug in new players, the attack is more about individuals and chemistry.
Our tendency to struggle in league games after midweek European trips is well documented, as is the boost teams get when they don’t have European football; see Chelsea and Liverpool this year. Our upturn in form has coincided with our exit from the Champions League. It’s not just less tiredness, it’s also the extra time on the training ground and the ability to focus.
Last season so many of our players had stand out seasons. The anti-climax during the run in, plus a disappointing and tiring Euro’s for our England contingent, was always likely to leave its mark. Dembele and Eriksen have been notably below par and the Dane’s resurgence has been a key factor in our recent run.
Of late Pochettino has moved to three at the back and that has freed our most potent attacking threat, our fullbacks. They have provided the pace and width missing in the early part of the season, opening up space in the centre for Ali, Eriksen and Kane. Rose and Walker are possibly the best in the league, while Trippier and Davies have proved able deputies.
By it’s very nature Pochettino’s system relies on everyone being in sync. If one or two of our players are a little off the pace or not on the same wavelength it doesn’t work. The chemistry that sees Eriksen find Ali with a subtle flick, or Ali chip the ball to an onrushing Kane, takes time to get right. It’s operates on much finer margins than the defence.
Even a casual 5-a-side player knows how important confidence is. One or two bad results and heads go down, the crowd gets restless, players take that second or two longer to make decisions, and worst of all, they take the safe option. There’s nothing like a run of wins and a happy crowd to fuel the kind of daring one touch attacking play we’ve seen of late. Long may it continue!
Why do you think Spurs have clicked? Do you think it will continue? Please leave your thoughts in the comments section below.
Discuss it with me on Twitter: @ABPSpurs
As I type Leicester and Hull are already fighting out the first game of the shiny new Premier League season. Probably a harder one to call than any of the previous ones. Continue reading
Spurs stand on the brink of a new season with high hopes. Last time round we saw a genuine title challenge, some scintillating football, new young stars and a third place finish. Continue reading
