Hugo Lloris has been a real asset to Tottenham over the last six seasons. He has consistently been one of the top goalkeepers in the Premier League, both through the command of his box and his shot stopping ability.
But this year some doubts have crept in after some perceived mistakes. How do Lloris’ numbers look?
One way to rate goalkeeping performances would be to compare the number of shots on target they have faced with the number of goals they have conceded. However, this fails to take into account how difficult those shots were to save – a hopeful 30 yard punt at the keeper is much easier to stop than a six yard shot into the bottom corner.
Post Shot Expected Goals
We can use post shot Expected Goals to create a more sophisticated picture. This is broadly the same as expected goals but only considers goal attempts that are on target and includes the direction of the shot.
We just compare the expected number of goals a goalkeeper is likely to have conceded given the shots they have faced, with the actual number of goals they have conceded.
Here are the numbers for the 2017-2018 Premier League season:
Note: for all keepers who faced more than 10.0 post shot xG, normalised per xG faced.
The results appear to make sense, David de Gea comes top of the pile as you might expect. Lloris is found towards the middle of the pack. Not terrible but not as high as you might expect for a keeper of his stature.
There are some caveats – this stat does not take into account pressure on the shooter, position of defenders or power of the shot; these were not available in the data used. For example it may be that Nick Pope benefits from the defensive strategies Burnley use.
Comparing with previous seasons
Is this usual for Lloris or was the 2017-2018 season an outlier?
Lloris’s numbers have been steadily improving year on year over his time in the Premier League; that is until this campaign.
Last season he lead the league!
Trend or blip?
So is this just a blip or something more worrying? Time will tell. Lloris has certainly earned the right to for us to wait and see.
Note: All models are my own, inspired by articles I have read on sites such as StatsBomb
Do you think Lloris has been off form this season? Is it a blip?
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