With just four games remaining, it looks like this year’s Premier League is a two horse race. Tottenham and Leicester have surprised everyone this year but who will take the final prize?
Looking at the league table, Leicester have a 5 point lead going into the last set of games. This makes them favourites to take their first league title, although there is still a chance Spurs could reel them in.
| Team | Played | GD | Points | |
| 1 | Leicester | 34 | 26 | 73 |
| 2 | Tottenham | 34 | 39 | 68 |
| 3 | Man City | 34 | 28 | 61 |
| 4 | Arsenal | 33 | 22 | 60 |
Spurs’ superior goal difference is a promising sign. The average Tottenham score for this season is 1.9 – 0.7, while Leicester’s is 1.7 – 1.0. Leicester don’t win as convincingly as Spurs, so they rely more on luck and are more prone to the effects of refereeing decisions.
Betting odds
Bookmakers are seldom wrong. They have Leicester as strong favourites but still give Spurs a chance.
| Decimal Odds | Fractional Odds | |
| Leicester | 1.54 | 8/15 |
| Tottenham | 2.9 | 15/8 |
| Arsenal | 140 | 139/1 |
| Man City | 800 | 799/1 |
TSR – shot ratios
A graph of Total Shot Ratio – often a good indicator of form – of teams in this season’s Premier League paints an interesting picture.
Manchester City have the best shot ratio, with Tottenham second. Surprisingly, Liverpool make up the top three. Leicester are way back in 11th, just behind Everton.
The graph clearly shows that Leicester massively outperform their shot ratios. This could indicate luck has played a part in their success. It also could be partly down to their playing style. The way they play – compact and on the break – may produce fewer shots but these may be of better quality, and vice versa for the chances they concede. An expected goals model would help clarify this.
Form
In the last fives games the two contenders form has been superb as they have distanced themselves from the chasing pack.
| GF | GA | Points | TSR | |
| Leicester | 7 | 2 | 13 | 0.43 |
| Tottenham | 13 | 1 | 13 | 0.67 |
Leicester’s points total is impressive but the underlying numbers are less so. Their wins have been by small margins and their shot ratio is below 0.5. Spurs’ form looks built on more solid foundations.
Remaining Games
With just four games left for each team, it’s worth looking at the strength of the respective run-ins. Here are the average shot ratios and average league positions of each team’s remaining opponents. Spurs look to have a marginally easier set of games.
| Average TSR | Average League Position | |
| Tottenham | 0.47 | 12.5 |
| Leicester | 0.50 | 10.25 |
Conclusion
Leicester are rightly favourites to record an incredible Premier League triumph. They have the most important statistic of all, points on the board. There is however hope for Spurs fans. Their team looks to be in better form and have a marginally easier set of opponents. Whoever wins, it will be an amazing achievement.
Who do you think will be victorious? Can Spurs catch Leicester? Please leave your thoughts in the comments section below.
Anything But Penalties 