Spurs vs Leicester – the title run-in in statistics

With just four games remaining, it looks like this year’s Premier League is a two horse race. Tottenham and Leicester have surprised everyone this year but who will take the final prize?

Looking at the league table, Leicester have a 5 point lead going into the last set of games. This makes them favourites to take their first league title, although there is still a chance Spurs could reel them in.

Team Played GD Points
1 Leicester 34 26 73
2 Tottenham 34 39 68
3 Man City 34 28 61
4 Arsenal 33 22 60

Spurs’ superior goal difference is a promising sign. The average Tottenham score for this season is 1.9 – 0.7, while Leicester’s is 1.7 – 1.0. Leicester don’t win as convincingly as Spurs, so they rely more on luck and are more prone to the effects of refereeing decisions.

Betting odds

Bookmakers are seldom wrong. They have Leicester as strong favourites but still give Spurs a chance.

Decimal Odds Fractional Odds
Leicester 1.54 8/15
Tottenham 2.9 15/8
Arsenal 140 139/1
Man City 800 799/1

TSR – shot ratios

A graph of Total Shot Ratio – often a good indicator of form – of teams in this season’s Premier League paints an interesting picture.

PremierLeagueTSR

Manchester City have the best shot ratio, with Tottenham second. Surprisingly, Liverpool make up the top three. Leicester are way back in 11th, just behind Everton.

The graph clearly shows that Leicester massively outperform their shot ratios. This could indicate luck has played a part in their success. It also could be partly down to their playing style. The way they play – compact and on the break – may produce fewer shots but these may be of better quality, and vice versa for the chances they concede. An expected goals model would help clarify this.

Form

In the last fives games the two contenders form has been superb as they have distanced themselves from the chasing pack.

GF GA Points TSR
Leicester 7 2 13 0.43
Tottenham 13 1 13 0.67

Leicester’s points total is impressive but the underlying numbers are less so. Their wins have been by small margins and their shot ratio is below 0.5. Spurs’ form looks built on more solid foundations.

Remaining Games

With just four games left for each team, it’s worth looking at the strength of the respective run-ins. Here are the average shot ratios and average league positions of each team’s remaining opponents. Spurs look to have a marginally easier set of games.

Average TSR Average League Position
Tottenham          0.47 12.5
Leicester          0.50 10.25

Conclusion

Leicester are rightly favourites to record an incredible Premier League triumph. They have the most important statistic of all, points on the board. There is however hope for Spurs fans. Their team looks to be in better form and have a marginally easier set of opponents. Whoever wins, it will be an amazing achievement.

Who do you think will be victorious? Can Spurs catch Leicester?  Please leave your thoughts in the comments section below.

Discuss it with me on Twitter: @ABPSpurs

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